APPENDIX E: MEMO – HOUSING NEEDS BY TENURE TYPE

APPENDIX E: MEMO – HOUSING NEEDS BY TENURE TYPE

MEMORANDUM

Date: August 11, 2020 To: Lindsay Chase, Director of Development Services From: Town of View Royal File: 2032.0003.01 Subject: Housing Need by Tenure Type

1. Background

This memo is intended to supplement the Town of View Royal’s Housing Needs Assessment by providing estimates of housing required, by unit type, including both existing and projected demand. This memo looks at three forms of housing: ownership, rental, and supportive/special needs housing. Each of these categories are broken out by specific type (e.g. market vs. affordable ownership).

2. Latent Housing Demand by Type

According to the Census, 480 units of various forms of affordable housing are required in View Royal, based on existing demand in 2016. This includes 125 units of affordable ownership, to address owners currently experiencing core housing need, 130 units of market and near market rental for renters who are paying more than 30% of their income toward housing costs (i.e. it is unaffordable), but are not in core housing need, and 225 units of affordable rental (including a mix of below market and deeply subsidized units) to support renters in core housing need. It is worth noting that the latent demand for additional rental is likely much higher than reflected in Table 1. Despite a significant increase in purpose-built rental units between 2018 and 2019, the vacancy rate in View Royal did not increase. This is indicative of overall regional demand for rental and CRD-wide low vacancy rates. Table 1 below is reflective only of the latent demand that can currently be captured by data from the Census for the Town of View Royal.¹

Table 1: Latent Demand for Housing by Type in View Royal

*Based on Owners in core housing need for owners in 2016 **Based on the difference between the number of renters who faced housing unaffordability in 2016—355—and the number in core housing need—225. ***Based on renters in core housing need in 2016.

¹ Between 2018 and 2019, View Royal added 152 new purpose-built rental units; however, despite this addition to the rental universe, vacancy rates actually declined below the previous vacancy rate (recorded in 2017) of 1.2%. It is therefore difficult to calculate the potential demand for new market rentals; however, regionally due to low vacancy rates this demand is considered high.

3. Projected Demand by Type

Based on housing projections developed for the Housing Needs Assessment Report, by 2025 an additional 820 units will be required in the Town of View Royal above 2016 housing units. Approximately 600 of these will be market ownership, while 30 will be owners requiring affordable ownership options (assuming that rates of core housing need for owners stay consistent with 2016 rates). An additional 150 market and near-market rental units will be required, while 40 additional units of affordable rental will be required (assuming a comparable rate of core housing need for renters in 2016 and 2025).

Table 2: Projected Demand for Housing by Type in View Royal

*Based on anticipated growth of owner households not experiencing **Based on projected number of owner households, using 2016 core housing need rates to determine the number of new owners in core housing need. ***Based on the difference between the number of new renters project to face housing unaffordability in 2025—60—and the number projected to be in core housing need —38. ****Applying 2016 core housing need rate for renters to new renter households projected to 2025.

4. Supportive and Special Needs Housing

While it is difficult to quantify the need for certain types of specialized and supportive housing due to data availability and the regional nature of the issue. However, some data does provide a proxy for certain population groups: using core housing need provided by specific population groups, we can identify three particular groups that may be most in need: seniors, households where at least one-person has an activity limitation, and lone-parent households. It is worth noting that there may be overlap between these groups (e.g. a senior-led household may have one or more person with an activity limitation), so these figures should be used only as a guide when considering new non-market projects targeted toward specific sub-populations. Additionally, figures for homelessness are released only on a regional basis, and are not available for 2020. While housing to support individuals experiencing homelessness may be less in demand in View Royal due to relative distance to many services, housing in the Town Centre would be appropriate for many groups needing deeply subsidized or supportive housing types.

Table 3: Estimated Demand for Housing by Population Group in View Royal²

* Based on 2016 figure for households led by seniors (65+) in core housing need. ** Based on 2016 figure for households with at least one person with an activity limitation, including physical disability or mental health issue in core housing need. ***Based on 2016 figure for lone-parent households in core housing need.

² Totals in Table 3 do not always add exactly due to a randomized rounding algorithm applied by Statistics Canada and CMHC.

5. Conclusion

Between 2016 and 2019 View Royal issued over 500 new building permits, which would address much of the projected growth for both market ownership and market rental. However, these units can take time to come online or impact the overall housing market. Additionally, the bulk of these units are focused at the market component of the Housing Wheelhouse: market rental and ownership. Core housing need and other data shows the need to support the development of a diversity of additional forms of housing, including affordable ownership, affordable rental, and to continue to monitor opportunities for supportive or special needs housing.

Sincerely,

URBAN MATTERS CCC

Matt Thomson, Community Housing Lead