Section 16.3: Community Growth
Analysis of development trends, population projections through 2050, and housing/employment land needs.
16.3 COMMUNITY GROWTH
REFERENCES
The following data sources were used to prepare information on View Royal’s development trends, population projections, and housing needs:
- Town of View Royal Data Available building and development permit data from the Town’s Development Services department was reviewed and referenced throughout the Community Profile to provide a high-level understanding of View Royal’s current development context. Data from 2010 to 2024 was reviewed for both residential and non-residential permits.
This data informed the availability of new housing units to meet short-term demand, as well as a high-level exploration of future development trends in View Royal.
British Columbia Statistics British Columbia Statistics’ population projections were used to prepare View Royal’s population projections, with the current 2025 population projection of 12,539 used as a starting point for each of the three growth scenarios (low, medium, and high).
Statistics Canada Information from the following Census years were used to inform the development of the low, medium, and high-growth population growth scenarios included in this section:
- Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population
- Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population
- Statistics Canada, 2011 Census of Population
- Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Population
- Statistics Canada, 2001 Census of Population
Each of these Census years was used to determine population growth in View Royal over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2021.
Statistics Canada information was also used to develop much of the Community Profile, including the supplementary tables on areas such as housing, income, and employment.
- Housing Needs Report To understand View Royal’s housing needs, information from the Housing Needs Report (September 2024) was used alongside available development permit data to determine the number of units required to meet housing demand.
Where possible, data from the report was extrapolated to align with the Official Community Plan’s 2050 time horizon.
- Non-Residential Commercial Demand Studies Two studies were conducted on locally-oriented retail and service space demand projections for View Royal. The first, completed in 2021, was updated in 2024 to reflect changes in market conditions. These sections in the Community Profile focus primarily on commercial uses, such as retail and office space.
Industrial and institutional development trends were forecasted using available View Royal permit data.
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
The following section reviews View Royal’s residential development permit data. Based on development permit data available between 2011 and 2024, an average of 127.6 units is permitted each year. However, some years have seen more activity than others; in 2021 and 2022, View Royal saw the highest number of applications, where a total of 428 and 419 units were permitted via development permit, respectively. Overall, there was an uptick in issued permits from 2016 to 2022, with a decrease in activity over 2023 and 2024. It is expected that a few major developments will be completed in View Royal over the next few years.
[Figure A8: Residential Units Permitted Yearly (Development Permits)²⁶ - Bar chart showing units permitted from 2010 to 2024, with major peaks in 2021 and 2022.]
There is less non-residential (commercial, industrial, institutional) building activity in the Town, with an average of 2.8 building permits issued each year (based on data from 2011 to 2024). Of these permits, the majority (89%) are for commercial or institutional uses; in the last five years, there has been a steady stream of approvals for these development types. There have been no building permits issued for industrial uses since 2011.²⁷
[Figure A9: Non-Residential Building Permits by Year and Type²⁸ - Stacked bar chart from 2011 to 2024 showing permit categories: Commercial, Institutional/Public, and Mixed Use.]
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Table A8 below outlines the low, medium, and high population growth scenarios for View Royal. The low growth scenario was prepared using projection data available from British Columbia Statistics. The medium and high growth scenarios were based on available population data from British Columbia Statistics and the 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2021 Censuses, and aligned to match growth trends across these Census years.²⁹ Other references included View Royal’s 2024 Interim Housing Needs Report, which forecasts the projected number of units needed to meet household growth. Regional growth rates from the Interim Housing Needs Report were also considered as part of scenario preparation but not factored into the final scenarios.
The medium growth scenario (2.2%) will be used to inform policy direction and land use designations of this Official Community Plan, as it is best aligned with historic annual population growth trends in View Royal over a period of 20 years. Both the low (1.1%) and high (3.3%) growth scenarios were prepared as supplementary information to reflect historical fluctuations in population rates and acknowledge the potential variations in growth over the next 25 years. The medium growth scenario (2.2%) anticipates the population of View Royal will be approximately 21,574 people in the year 2050.
Table A8. Population Projections (2025–2050)³⁰
| Year | Low (1.1%) | Medium (2.2%) | High (3.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12,539 | 12,539 | 12,539 |
| 2026 | 12,675 | 12,814 | 12,953 |
| 2027 | 12,812 | 13,095 | 13,380 |
| 2028 | 12,951 | 13,383 | 13,822 |
| 2029 | 13,091 | 13,676 | 14,278 |
| 2030 | 13,233 | 13,976 | 14,749 |
| 2031 | 13,376 | 14,283 | 15,236 |
| 2032 | 13,521 | 14,596 | 15,739 |
| 2033 | 13,667 | 14,917 | 16,258 |
| 2034 | 13,815 | 15,244 | 16,794 |
| 2035 | 13,965 | 15,579 | 17,349 |
| 2036 | 14,116 | 15,920 | 17,921 |
| 2037 | 14,269 | 16,270 | 18,513 |
| 2038 | 14,423 | 16,627 | 19,123 |
| 2039 | 14,580 | 16,992 | 19,755 |
| 2040 | 14,737 | 17,364 | 20,406 |
| 2041 | 14,897 | 17,745 | 21,080 |
| 2042 | 15,058 | 18,135 | 21,776 |
| 2043 | 15,221 | 18,533 | 22,494 |
| 2044 | 15,386 | 18,939 | 23,236 |
| 2045 | 15,553 | 19,355 | 24,003 |
| 2046 | 15,721 | 19,780 | 24,795 |
| 2047 | 15,891 | 20,214 | 25,614 |
| 2048 | 16,063 | 20,657 | 26,459 |
| 2049 | 16,237 | 21,110 | 27,332 |
| 2050 | 16,413 | 21,574 | 28,234 |
[Figure A10: Population Growth Projections³¹ - Line chart showing the three population growth scenarios from 2025 to 2050.]
HOUSING NEEDS
Extreme Core Housing Need
As defined by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and the University of British Columbia’s Housing Assessment Resource Tools, a household is deemed to be in core housing need if they are spending over 30% of its before-tax income on median shelter costs and if housing does not meet one or more of the following standards:
- Adequacy – does not require any major repairs.
- Suitability – has enough bedrooms for the household’s residents.
Extreme Core Housing Need has the same standards as Core Housing Need, except a household is considered to be in extreme core housing need if it is spending over 50% of their before-tax household income on shelter costs.
Table A9 below identifies the total number of owner (with a mortgage) and renter households in Extreme Core Housing Need in 2021, along with the forecasted number of units required for View Royal to provide suitable, affordable, and adequate housing for this group in a 20-year time period.
Table A9. Number and Proportion of Owner and Renter Households in Extreme Core Housing Need³²
| Total Households | 2021 Households | Average Extreme Core Housing Need Rate | Households in Extreme Core Housing Need |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owners | 3,315 | N/A | N/A |
| Owners with a Mortgage | 0.90% | 30.00 | |
| Renters | 1,600 | 9.02% | 144.4 |
| Total New Units to Meet Extreme Core Housing Need – 20 Years | 174.4 |
Housing Supply: Units Required to Meet Housing Needs
Housing Needs: 2026 AND 2041
The following tables include information from the Interim Housing Needs Report, which projects the total number of new units required to meet household growth needs in the short- (5 year) and long- (20 year) term.
Table A10 below uses an average of the municipal and regional growth projections to determine the total new units required to meet anticipated household growth needs in 2041.
Table A10. New Units Needed to Meet Anticipated 20-Year Household Growth Needs³³
| Growth Scenarios | Regional Growth Rate | Households 2021 | Households 2041 | New Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local Household Growth | N/A | 4,915 | 7,198 | 2,283 |
| Regionally Based Household Growth | 37.6% | 4,915 | 6,761.5 | 1,846.5 |
| Scenario Average | 2,064.8 | |||
| Total New Units to Meet Household Growth Needs – 20 Years | 2,064.8 |
The above information informs the summary of new units in Table A11 (the total from Table A10 is a line item below). Altogether, the Interim Housing Needs Report indicates that a total of 842 units would be required over 5 years and 2,889 over 20 years to 2041 to meet housing needs related to extreme core housing, persons experiencing homelessness, suppressed household formation, anticipated growth, rental vacancy rate adjustment, and local demand in View Royal.
Table A11. Total Number of New Units Needed in the Short- and Long-Term³⁴
| Housing Need Component | 5 Year Need (2026) | 20 Year Need (2041) | 29 Year Need (2050) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Core Housing Need | 43.59 | 174.36 | 252.8 |
| Persons Experiencing Homelessness | 28.32 | 56.65 | 82.1 |
| Suppressed Household Formation | 35.56 | 142.24 | 206.2 |
| Anticipated Growth | 621.66 | 2,064.76 | 2993.9 |
| Rental Vacancy Rate Adjustment | 11.57 | 46.28 | 67.0 |
| Additional Local Demand | 101.11 | 404.44 | 586.3 |
| Total New Units – 5 Years | 842 | ||
| Total New Units – 20 Years | 2,889 | ||
| Total New Units – 29 Years | 4,189 |
The Interim Housing Needs Report was completed in September 2024. As of November 2024, a total of 706 new dwelling units are expected to be completed by the end of 2026, which includes 471 rental units and 235 strata units. At that time, two multi-unit buildings totalling 158 dwelling units were partially occupied. When all are summed together, a total of 864 new units are anticipated to be completed by the end of 2026, therefore supporting the Town in meeting its short-term housing need of 842 units (as noted in Table A11 above).
Housing Needs In 2050
Using Table A11 as a reference point, the Interim Housing Needs Report identifies a need for 842 units over 5 years (to 2026) and 2,889 units over 20 years (to 2041). Since the Interim Housing Needs Report timeframe does not align with the Official Community Plan horizon to 2050, these figures were adjusted to estimate housing needs over the longer period.
To do this, the 20-year total of 2,889 units was converted into an average annual housing demand by dividing by 20. This annual rate was then applied to different time periods to align with Official Community Plan milestones:
- 29 years (2021–2050): used to estimate total housing needs to 2050, resulting in an additional 4,189 units beyond the Interim Housing Needs Report timeframe.
- 10 years (2041–2050): used to isolate the additional housing need beyond 2041, resulting in 1,300 units required in addition to the 2,889 units already identified for 2021–2041.
A housing capacity analysis completed for View Royal showed the projected uptake of small-scale multi-unit housing alone will be insufficient to meet long-term housing needs in View Royal by 2050; it is estimated that 2,580-2,703 units will be introduced through these legislative changes. Additional action is necessary to create favourable conditions to address View Royal’s forecasted long-term housing need.
Based on the projected uptake of small-scale multi-unit housing developments in View Royal, housing developments currently under construction, and the selection of test site scenarios from land economics studies completed in 2025 with high development potential and higher permitted densities than what is permitted in the 2011 Official Community Plan and Zoning Bylaw No. 900, it is estimated that approximately 5,366 new dwelling units will be constructed in View Royal over the next 25 years.
If this holds true, View Royal will meet and exceed its projected long-term housing need of 4,189 units. Further discussion on the type of housing (market vs. affordable rental housing) is provided in the following sections.
Note that these numbers are subject to fluctuations based on evolving market conditions, policy decisions, global economic changes, and unforeseen circumstances that could impact housing needs and development trends.
Affordable Rental Housing Need
Three types of affordable rental housing are needed in View Royal to meet the housing need identified in Table A11 and the housing targets issued by the Province in 2024:³⁵ below-market, market, and supportive. A breakdown of the number of units required for each housing type by the year 2029 (the timeframe identified in the Province’s housing targets) and the year 2050 (the life span of this Official Community Plan), is provided in Table A12 below. This breakdown assumes the following based on the classifications of housing need as discussed in the Interim Housing Needs Report:
- Those experiencing Extreme Core Housing Need require below-market rental housing
- Those experiencing homelessness require supportive housing
The Interim Housing Needs Report does not clearly dictate a number of new affordable market rental units that may be required.
Table A12. Affordable Rental Housing Need by Type for the Years 2029 and 2050
| Rental Housing Type | 2029 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| Below-Market | 185 | 252 |
| Market | 236 | N/A |
| Supportive | 11 | 82 |
Approximately 9 below-market units and 3 supportive housing units are needed per year to meet View Royal’s need for these types of housing by the year 2050.
Market Housing Need
Based on the data provided in Table A11, approximately 3,852 market rental or ownership units are needed in View Royal by the year 2050. This equates to ~133 units per year.
EMPLOYMENT LANDS PROJECTIONS
Commercial Projections
Retail and Service Projections
A market demand study was completed in 2021 that provided locally oriented retail and service space demand projections for View Royal. Projections were calculated under two scenarios:
- Lower Capture Scenario: View Royal captures about 50% of the future trade area,³⁶ local-oriented retail, and service growth throughout the projection period from 2025 to 2050.
- Higher Capture Scenario: The higher scenario assumes that the proportion of future trade area local-oriented retail and service growth by View Royal increases from 50% in 2025 to 75% from 2030 onwards.
These projections have been updated accordingly to reflect the current market context of View Royal, with results shown in Table A13 and Table A14 below.
Table A13. Local Oriented Retail/Service Demand Projections - Lower Scenario³⁷
| 2025-2030 | 2030-2035 | 2035-2040 | 2040-2045 | 2045-2050 | 2025-2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Royal Projected Supportable Local Oriented Retail Floor Space Growth (sq. ft.) | 13,500 | 17,500 | 17,000 | 15,000 | 17,500 | 80,500 |
| View Royal Projected Subregional Orientated Retail Floor Space Growth (sq. ft.) | 11,000 | 10,900 | 7,100 | 5,450 | 10,750 | 45,200 |
| View Royal Projected Total Retail/Service Floor Space Growth (sq. ft.) | 24,500 | 28,400 | 24,100 | 20,450 | 28,250 | 125,700 |
| Average Projected Yearly Retail/Service Growth Per Time Period (sq. ft.) | 4,900 | 5,680 | 4,820 | 4,090 | 5,650 | 5,028 |
| 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | |
| View Royal Supportable Retail/Service Floorspace (sq. ft.) | 528,950 | 553,300 | 581,700 | 605,800 | 626,250 | 654,500 |
Table A14. Local Oriented Retail/Service Demand Projections - Higher Scenario³⁸
| 2025-2030 | 2030-2035 | 2035-2040 | 2040-2045 | 2045-2050 | 2025-2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Royal Projected Supportable Local Orientated Retail Floor Space Growth (sq. ft.) | 20,250 | 26,250 | 25,500 | 22,500 | 26,250 | 120,750 |
| View Royal Projected Subregional Orientated Retail Floor Space Growth (sq. ft.) | 22,000 | 21,800 | 14,200 | 10,900 | 21,500 | 90,400 |
| View Royal Projected Total Retail/Service Floor Space Growth (sq. ft.) | 42,250 | 48,050 | 39,700 | 33,400 | 47,750 | 211,150 |
| Average Projected Yearly Retail/Service Growth Per Time Period (sq. ft.) | 8,450 | 9,610 | 7,940 | 6,680 | 9,550 | 8,446 |
| 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | |
| View Royal Supportable Retail/Service Floorspace (sq. ft.) | 528,950 | 571,200 | 619,250 | 658,950 | 692,350 | 740,100 |
The projections show that the supportable total retail and service floorspace in View Royal could increase by about 125,700 square feet (11,678 square metres) and 211,150 square feet (19,616 square metres) between 2025 and 2050. This is equivalent to annual retail and service growth of about 5,030 square feet to 8,450 square feet per year on average.
Office Space Projections
Recent development indicates that the suburban share of Greater Victoria’s office space is down from 35% in 2019 to 33% (as it was in 2006). Trends in office development suggest that the Town should re-evaluate office space growth to 2031 to a much lower share of growth, and a more modest growth rate thereafter to 2050. Based on this information, two projection scenarios were prepared:
- Lower Growth Scenario (Table A15): Suburban office growth share is 33%, with View Royal’s remaining at 7.7% (as it was in 2001)—both figures are consistent between 2025 and 2050.
- Higher Growth Scenario (Table A16): Same 7.7% of suburban growth for the 2025-2030 period and increasing by 1% for each subsequent 5-year period beyond 2030 to 2050.
Across both scenarios, the overall growth in floor space will remain the same; according to Colliers, the Greater Victoria market saw approximately 150,000 sq. ft. (13,945 square metres) of new office space under development in 2024, a figure confirmed by the net annual growth in office space between 2019 and 2023 prepared by CoStar.
Table A15. Office Space Projections, Lower Growth Scenario³⁹
| Average Annual Office Development (square feet) | 2019-2025 | 2025-2030 | 2030-2035 | 2035-2040 | 2040-2045 | 2045-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Victoria | 135,000 | 135,000 | 135,000 | 135,000 | 135,000 | 135,000 |
| Suburban Office Market Share | 33.0% | 33.0% | 33.0% | 33.0% | 33.0% | 33.0% |
| Suburban Office Market | 44,000 | 44,000 | 44,000 | 44,000 | 44,000 | 44,000 |
| View Royal Share | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| View Royal | - | 3,400 | 3,400 | 3,400 | 3,400 | 3,400 |
| Projected Total Office Floorspace | 2019 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Victoria⁴⁰ | 12,898,405 | 13,708,405 | 14,383,405 | 15,058,405 | 15,733,405 | 16,408,405 | 17,082,405 |
| Suburban Office Market Share | 35.3% | 35.1% | 35.0% | 34.9% | 34.8% | 34.7% | 34.6% |
| Suburban Office Market⁴¹ | 4,551,601 | 4,815,601 | 5,035,601 | 5,255,601 | 5,475,601 | 5,695,601 | 5,915,601 |
| View Royal Share | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| View Royal | 146,910 | 146,910 | 163,910 | 180,910 | 197,910 | 214,910 | 231,910 |
| View Royal Growth from 2025 (square feet) | n/a | - | 17,000 | 34,000 | 51,000 | 68,000 | 85,000 |
Table A16. Office Space Projections, Higher Growth Scenario⁴²
| Average Annual Office Development (square feet) | 2019-2025 | 2025-2030 | 2030-2035 | 2035-2040 | 2040-2045 | 2045-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Victoria | 150,000 | 150,000 | 150,000 | 150,000 | 150,000 | 150,000 |
| Suburban Office Market Share | 33.0% | 33.0% | 34.0% | 35.0% | 36.0% | 37.0% |
| Suburban Office Market | 49,000 | 49,000 | 51,000 | 52,000 | 54,000 | 55,000 |
| View Royal Share | 0.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.7% |
| View Royal | - | 3,800 | 4,400 | 5,000 | 5,800 | 6,400 |
| Projected Total Office Floorspace | 2019 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Victoria⁴³ | 12,898,405 | 13,798,405 | 14,548,405 | 15,298,405 | 16,048,405 | 16,798,405 | 17,548,405 |
| Suburban Office Market Share | 35.3% | 35.1% | 35.0% | 34.9% | 34.9% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| Suburban Office Market⁴⁴ | 4,551,601 | 4,845,601 | 5,090,601 | 5,345,601 | 5,605,601 | 5,875,601 | 6,150,601 |
| View Royal Share | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% |
| View Royal | 146,910 | 146,910 | 165,910 | 187,910 | 212,910 | 241,910 | 273,910 |
| View Royal Growth from 2025 (square feet) | n/a | - | 19,000 | 41,000 | 66,000 | 95,000 | 127,000 |
Overall, it is anticipated that office floorspace growth in View Royal could increase by 85,000 square feet (7,897 square metres) to 127,000 square feet (11,799 square metres) between 2025 and 2050. Due to View Royal’s proximity to the Victoria General Hospital, it is anticipated that this demand will be for medical-related office space (e.g., professional and personal services).
Industrial Projections
Since 2011, the Town has not seen any new building permits for industrial development, except for one building addition that is a mixed-use commercial and industrial development. Given historic building permit and construction trends, Town regulations, and the current market conditions for industrial development in View Royal, it is anticipated that there will be little to no growth in industrial land uses if the current conditions remain.
Accommodations in this Official Community Plan have been made to enhance the permissiveness of light industrial uses within the Western Gateway Employment District Corridor designation, as outlined in section 5.2. If approximately 30% of the developable area of parcels with this land use designation are built out for industrial purposes within the lifespan of this plan, approximately 862,819 square feet (80,158 square metres) of industrial development could be added to View Royal.
Institutional Projections
Based on historic building permit data for public/institutional land uses from 2011 to 2024, it is anticipated that there will be approximately 8,008 square feet (744 square metres) of institutional development constructed in the Town each year, or an estimated total of 200,112 square feet (18,591 square metres) of new institutional development over a 25-year period. Examples of potential institutional developments include new or expanded hospital facilities, medical offices or clinics, BC Transit facilities, public utility and service buildings, and educational facilities.
Footnotes:
²⁶ Information from the Town’s available building and development permit data between 2010-2024 (Town of View Royal, Development Permit Data 2010-2024). ²⁷ The Town’s 2011 Official Community Plan did not include a land use designation that supported industrial use. ²⁸ Information from the Town’s available building and development permit data between 2010-2024 (Town of View Royal, Development Permit Data 2010-2024). ²⁹ The British Columbia Statistics population projection model ‘grows’ the population by taking the latest base year estimate by forecasting births, deaths, and migration by age. The forecast is based on past trends. This was used to calculate the ‘low growth’ scenario. Comparatively, the ‘medium growth’ and ‘high growth’ scenarios considered both a combination of British Columbia Statistics data and 2021 Census data (which was aligned with information from the 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016 Censuses), and the Interim Housing Needs report to develop a growth projection. The medium and high growth scenarios provide a more robust and accurate model of potential growth as it factors in more than just births, deaths, and migration, but also consider housing needs in the community and historical growth rates. ³⁰ Initial population projection data sourced from British Columbia Statistics (initial 2025 population projection). ³¹ Data sourced from Table 1, more information on the population projections methodology is described above. ³² Information sourced from: Town of View Royal, Housing Needs Assessment Report & Interim Housing Needs Report. ³³ Information sourced from: Town of View Royal, Housing Needs Assessment Report & Interim Housing Needs Report. ³⁴ Information sourced from: Town of View Royal, Housing Needs Assessment Report & Interim Housing Needs Report. ³⁵ Information sourced from Province of British Columbia Housing Unit Breakdown as Guidance for the Town of View Royal. ³⁶ Trade area refers to two: The local trade area (View Royal, Esquimalt, Vic West) and the subregional commercial trade area (adds Colwood, Langford, Highlands, Metchosin). ³⁷ Information sourced from: Town of View Royal, Official Community Plan Land Economics Memo (April 14, 2025). ³⁸ Information sourced from: Town of View Royal, Official Community Plan Land Economics Memo (April 14, 2025). ³⁹ Information sourced from: Town of View Royal, Official Community Plan Land Economics Memo (April 14, 2025). ⁴⁰ British Columbia Assessment. ⁴¹ The suburban office market is the Greater Victoria office market, excluding the City of Victoria. ⁴² Information sourced from: Town of View Royal, Official Community Plan Land Economics Memo (April 14, 2025). ⁴³ British Columbia Assessment. ⁴⁴ The suburban office market is the Greater Victoria office market, excluding the City of Victoria.