16.3 COMMUNITY GROWTH (Appendix A Continued)

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

The following section reviews View Royal’s residential development permit data. Based on development permit data available between 2011 and 2024, an average of 127.6 units is permitted each year. However, some years have seen more activity than others; in 2021 and 2022, View Royal saw the highest number of applications, where a total of 428 and 419 units were permitted via development permit, respectively. Overall, there was an uptick in issued permits from 2016 to 2022, with a decrease in activity over 2023 and 2024. It is expected that a few major developments will be completed in View Royal over the next few years.

^26 Information from the Town’s available building and development permit data between 2010-2024 (Town of View Royal, Development Permit Data 2010-2024).

There is less non-residential (commercial, industrial, institutional) building activity in the Town, with an average of 2.8 building permits issued each year (based on data from 2011 to 2024). Of these permits, the majority (89%) are for commercial or institutional uses; in the last five years, there has been a steady stream of approvals for these development types. There have been no building permits issued for industrial uses since 2011.^27

^27 The Town’s 2011 Official Community Plan did not include a land use designation that supported industrial use. ^28 Information from the Town’s available building and development permit data between 2010-2024 (Town of View Royal, Development Permit Data 2010-2024).

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Table A8 below outlines the low, medium, and high population growth scenarios for View Royal. The low growth scenario was prepared using projection data available from British Columbia Statistics. The medium and high growth scenarios were based on available population data from British Columbia Statistics and the 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2021 Censuses, and aligned to match growth trends across these Census years.^29 Other references included View Royal’s 2024 Interim Housing Needs Report, which forecasts the projected number of units needed to meet household growth. Regional growth rates from the Interim Housing Needs Report were also considered as part of scenario preparation but not factored into the final scenarios.

^29 The British Columbia Statistics population projection model ‘grows’ the population by taking the latest base year estimate by forecasting births, deaths, and migration by age. The forecast is based on past trends. This was used to calculate the ‘low growth’ scenario. Comparatively, the ‘medium growth’ and ‘high growth’ scenarios considered both a combination of British Columbia Statistics data and 2021 Census data (which was aligned with information from the 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016 Censuses), and the Interim Housing Needs report to develop a growth projection. The medium and high growth scenarios provide a more robust and accurate model of potential growth as it factors in more than just births, deaths, and migration, but also consider housing needs in the community and historical growth rates.

The medium growth scenario (2.2%) will be used to inform policy direction and land use designations of this Official Community Plan, as it is best aligned with historic annual population growth trends in View Royal over a period of 20 years. Both the low (1.1%) and high (3.3%) growth scenarios were prepared as supplementary information to reflect historical fluctuations in population rates and acknowledge the potential variations in growth over the next 25 years. The medium growth scenario (2.2%) anticipates the population of View Royal will be approximately 21,574 people in the year 2050.

Table A8. Population Projections (2025–2050)^30

^30 Initial population projection data sourced from British Columbia Statistics (initial 2025 population projection).

^31 Data sourced from Table 1, more information on the population projections methodology is described above.