9 ERSKINE LANE Traffic Impact Assessment

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Watt Consulting Group was retained by West Urban Developments to conduct a Traffic Impact Assessment (TIA) for the proposed residential development at 9 Erskine Lane in the Town of View Royal. This study assesses the traffic impacts of the proposed land use, reviews traffic conditions at key intersections, and assesses the need for any mitigation measures. The study reviews the existing traffic operations along with the post development and long-term conditions for all modes of transportation.

1.1 Study Area

See Figure 1 for the study area and location. The study area includes the site accesses and following intersections:

• Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive
• Burnside Road W / Watkiss Way
• Watkiss Way / Hospital Access / Mall Access
• Watkiss Way / Chancellor Avenue / Helmcken Road

1.2 The Site Today

The site is currently undeveloped.

1.3 Proposed Development

The proposed development will consist of four mid-rise buildings of 6 stories each containing 336 residential units between them and is expected to be completed by 2023. The site plan is shown in Figure 2.

1.4 This Report

This report is provided as part of the Zoning Bylaw Amendment application being submitted to the Town of View Royal. It provides the following:

• An overview of the existing and evolving transportation context in the vicinity of the site, including vehicular, pedestrian, cycling, and transit facilities.
• An overview of the proposed development programme.
• An assessment of the existing traffic activity patterns and volumes in the study area during the weekday morning and afternoon peak periods.
• A comprehensive review of the vehicular traffic volume changes that may occur in the area in the future with the construction of other area development projects.
• An assessment of the trip generation and assignment characteristics of the proposed development.
• A review of vehicular traffic operations at intersections in the area under existing and future conditions, including an assessment of the operational impacts of the proposed development.

2.0 TRANSPORTATION CONTEXT

2.1 Land Use

The proposed site was rezoned as CD 25 as part of the development process. There is an existing single-family home on the site. The surrounding land use is a mix of multi-family and single family residential along Erskine Lane and Stoneridge Drive, with the Victoria General Hospital to the east.

2.2 Road Network

2.2.1 Existing Road Network

Six key roads were identified within the study area:

• Watkiss Way is an undivided, two-lane, major road that runs east/west within the study area. There are bicycle lanes on both sides of the street and no parking allowed on either side of the street. The posted speed limit is 50 km/h.
• Burnside Road W is an undivided two-lane, collector road that runs north/south within the study area. There are no bicycle lanes in the vicinity of the site, although there are bicycle lanes between Kami Court and Watkiss Way. Parking is not allowed along the street, except for a portion of road on the south side of the street just west of Watkiss Way where there is parking in laybys. The posted speed limit is 50 km/h.
• Erskine Lane is an undivided, two-lane local road that runs north/south within the study area. There are no bicycle lanes, and no parking is allowed except east of 7 Erskine Lane on the north side of the road for permit holders. The posted speed limit is 30 km/h.
• Stoneridge Drive is an undivided, two-lane local road that runs north/south within the study area. There are no bicycle lanes, and there is limited parking in front of the houses further up the road. The posted speed limit is 30 km/h.
• Helmcken Road is an undivided major road that generally runs north/south within the study area. Helmcken Road has a variable cross-section ranging from 6 lanes south of Watkiss Way to 2 lanes north of Watkiss Way, with a combination of raised center median, dedicated left turn lanes and a two-way center-left-turn-lane that provides access to residential properties between Burnside Road and Watkiss Way / Chancellor Avenue. There are bicycle lanes on both sides of the street, and no parking. The posted speed limit is 50 km/h.
• Hospital Access / Mall Access is an undivided, two-lane local road that runs east / west within the study area. There are no bicycle lanes and no parking. The posted speed limit is 30 km/h.

Four key intersections were identified within the study area:

• Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive is a four-leg, stop-controlled intersection, although a change in traffic control to either a traffic signal or roundabout is planned to be constructed in the short term. The eastbound and westbound approaches on Watkiss Way are free flow, and the northbound and southbound approaches on Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive are stop-controlled.
• Watkiss Way / Burnside Road W is a four-legged signalized intersection. The northbound leg has a separate left / through lane and right turn lane, with the northbound left turn having protected / permitted phasing during the PM peak hour.
• Watkiss Way / Hospital Access / Mall Access is a single lane roundabout with a westbound-right by-pass from Watkiss Way into the Eagle Creek Village commercial development.
• Helmcken Road / Watkiss Way / Chancellor Avenue is a four-legged signalized intersection. Dedicated left turn lanes, including dual northbound lefts, are provided on all approaches to the intersection and the Helmcken Road southbound approach includes a channelized right turn island. The left turn movements on Helmcken Road have protected left turn phasing. The eastbound left turn movement (Watkiss Way onto Helmcken Road) has protected/permitted left turn phasing. The south leg of the Helmcken Road / Watkiss Way intersection is under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure (MOTI).

2.2.2 Traffic Calming

Watkiss Way currently has approximately 5,000 vehicles per day on the corridor which by 2033 is projected to reach 8,000 vpd. At this level of volume, the roadway is operating near an arterial road level (from a collector road) or as the Transportation Master Plan states a Major Roadway. The higher the road classification (arterial is the highest) the more the focus is on the mobility of traffic over access and calming traffic (by reducing volumes).

On an arterial roadway the main way to impact vehicle speeds and calm traffic is to change the road cross section to introduce more urban elements (such as sidewalks, medians, and landscaping) to visually narrow the roadway, along with physical narrowing of the lanes (to 3.3m) as well as added density (increased natural surveillance). The Town has a DCC project for this section of Watkiss Way that includes narrowed lanes, medians with landscaping, and sidewalk. With the development there is an opportunity to narrow the lanes along the development frontage on Watkiss Way.

The short length of Erskine Lane and the lack of connection to other roadways reduces the potential need for traffic calming on Erskine Lane itself, since motorists on the street have limited distance to speed.

2.3 Transit Network

2.3.1 Existing Transit Network

The area transit network is illustrated in Figure 3.

Route 14 – Vic General / UVic operates between the University of Victoria and the Victoria General Hospital, passing by the Oak Bay Junction. The closest stop is approximately 400 metres (i.e., a 5-minute walk) from the site at Hospital Way at Watkiss Way or the Victoria General Hospital stop. Buses operate at 15-to-30-minute headways on weekdays and Saturdays, and 20-to-30-minute headways on Sundays.

Route 22 – Vic General / Hillside Centre operates between the Hillside Mall and the Victoria General Hospital, passing the Tillicum Mall. The closest stop is approximately 190 metres (i.e., a 3-minute walk) from the site at Watkiss Way at Stoneridge. Buses operate at 20-to-30-minute headways on weekdays, and 30-to-45-minute headways on weekends.

Route 39 – Westhills / Interurban / Royal Oak / UVic generally operates in an eastwest direction between Westhills Exchange and the University of Victoria, passing by the Colwood Exchange, Camosun College Interurban Campus, and the Royal Oak Exchange. The closest stop is approximately 190 metres (i.e., a 3-minute walk) from the site at Watkiss Way at Stoneridge. Near the site, buses operate at 30-to-60-minute headways on weekdays only.

Route 53 – Victoria General Hospital / Langford Exchange generally operates in an east-west direction between the Lanford Exchange and Victoria General Hospital. The closest stop is approximately 190 metres (i.e., a 3-minute walk) from the site at Watkiss Way at Stoneridge. Buses operate at 40-to-90-minute headways on weekdays and 90 minutes to 2-hour headways on weekends.

Route 95 –Langford / Downton RAPIDBUS generally operates in an east-west direction between the Lanford Exchange and the Legislature downtown Victoria, passing the Colwood Exchange. The closest stop is approximately 350 metres (i.e., a 4-minute walk) from the Watkiss Way at Helmcken bus stop at Highway 1 at Helmcken. Residents can take bus 14, 22, or 39 bus for one stop (approximately 1-min) to reach the Watkiss way at Helmcken bus stop. Buses operate at 8-to-30-minute headways on weekdays, 15-to-30-minute headways on weekends.

The Highway 1 at Helmcken bus stop provides access to routes 44, 47, 48, 51, 61, 65, 66, 95, and 99.

2.3.2 Evolving Transit Network

BC Transit is collaborating with municipal, regional, and provincial partners to develop the Victoria Regional RapidBus Implementation Strategy. RapidBus routes are planned to operate two-ways, 18-20 hours per day, 7 days a week. Phase 1 is complete and includes the Westshore Line which runs from Langford to Victoria’s Downtown Core.

2.4 Cycling Network

2.4.1 Existing Cycling Network

The site currently has good cycling facilities in its immediate vicinity. Island Highway, Helmcken Road, and Watkiss Way have on-street bike lanes. Watkiss Way connects to Galloping Goose Regional Trail via Erskine Lane, and at Watkiss Way / Burnside Road W, and the Galloping Goose has a connection to the E&N Rail Trail at Island Highway. Shared streets are available on Chancellor Avenue. These facilities provide access to a variety of commercial and employment destinations in the area, as well as the Galloping Goose Regional Trail and the E&N Rail Trail, which provide connections for cyclists across the Greater Victoria Area as a whole. The area cycling network is illustrated in Figure 4.

2.4.2 Evolving Cycling Network

Via the Active Transportation Network Plan The Town of View Royal has plans to install unidirectional bike lanes on both sides of Chancellor Avenue to improve the connection to the Galloping Goose Regional Trail and Eagle Creek Village. Helmcken Road (Watkiss Way to Burnside Rd) will have protected bike lanes installed on both sides to allow for a better connection to Eagle Creek Village, and Watkiss Way will have protected bike lanes installed from Helmcken Road to the roundabout.

The design of the cycling facilities on the Erskine Lane are expected to be upgraded, likely into a multi-use path.

2.5 Pedestrian Environment

2.5.1 Existing Pedestrian Network

Pedestrian infrastructure around the site is good but incomplete. Watkiss Way has a disjointed sidewalk network. In the more developed sections of Watkiss Way (e.g., by Helmcken Road and Hospital Access) there is sidewalk on both sides of the street. Erskine Lane and Stoneridge Drive have no sidewalks on either side of the street.

The site benefits from proximity to two off-street multi-use pathways (i.e., Hospital trail & Galloping Goose Trail) that offer connections to all the key amenities in the neighbourhood, such as access to the Watkiss Way transit stops, the Victoria General Hospital and the Eagle Creek Village commercial area. The Hospital trail is a worn gravel pathway, over a CRD utility right-of-way, that can be utilized by pedestrians.

2.5.2 Evolving Pedestrian Network

The Town of View Royal has plans to install sidewalks on the west side of Chancellor Avenue as part of the Active Transportation Network Plan. Helmcken Road (Watkiss Way to Burnside Rd) will have sidewalks installed on both sides of the road, and the roundabout at Watkiss Way / Hospital Access will have the sidewalks widened to improve pedestrian comfort.

The proposed development will add pedestrian improvements on its Erskine Lane and Watkiss Way frontage, which will provide connections to the existing bus stop along with the Hospital trail and Galloping Goose.

2.6 Area Travel Characteristics

2.6.1 Existing Area Travel Characteristics

The 2017 CRD Household Travel Survey provides information on area travel characteristics for southern Vancouver Island. Table 1 outlines the mode share for the area.

Table 1 – Existing Mode Share

Notes:

1. Based on 2017 CRD Household Travel Survey data for District 13 – Town of View Royal, Esquimalt Nation, Songhees First Nation
2. Travel mode split calculation based on overall number of trips to, from, and within district.

3.0 DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL

The proposed development will consist of 336 dwelling units in four mid-rise buildings (6 stories). Table 2 outlines the development programme and transportation-related elements of the proposed site plan. The architectural site plan is provided in Appendix A.

Table 2 - Development Proposal

3.1 Site Access

The site has 3 accesses on Erskine Lane. Pedestrians and cyclists have the option to use the connection to Galloping Goose Trail at the south end of Erskine Lane to walk/bike to the site. There is a trail passing through the site that connects Erskine Lane to the Victoria General Hospital.

3.1.1 Corner Clearance

The access closest to Watkiss Way is 55m south of Watkiss Way, exceeding the TAC’s minimum corner clearance of 15m for local roads from a stop-controlled major intersection. Therefore, the location of the driveway access is appropriate. The spacing between the driveways exceeds 5m and therefore is also appropriate.

3.1.2 Sight Distance

The sight distance at all the proposed accesses on Erskine Lane were reviewed to ensure sufficient sight distance is available for motorists turning into and out of the site. Erskine Lane has a posted 30 km/h speed limit.

Sight distances are met for all three accesses.

The access located north of the Hospital trail (Access 1), the measured sight distance to the right (north) is 50m which does not meet the required intersection sight distance (65m) for left turns from stop for 30 km/h. However, there is no reason for vehicles to turn left out of the site as a left turn would take drivers to a dead-end. If a rare vehicle turns left the approaching vehicle on Erskine Lane has sufficient sight distance to stop or slow for a turning vehicle. A summary of sight distances for Access 1 for buildings A & B at 30 km/h is provided in Table 3. Sight distances are met for the accesses located south of the hospital trail.

Table 3 – Sight Distances at Access 1 (30 km/h)

4.0 TRAFFIC VOLUMES

4.1 Traffic Analysis Scenarios and Design Periods

Traffic operations analyses have been undertaken for the weekday morning and afternoon peak hours under the following conditions:

• Existing traffic – traffic activity under current conditions (site is expected to open this year)
• Post-development traffic – traffic activity levels into the future with the site redeveloped and projected site generated traffic added to the road network.

Traffic operations are discussed in the following sections for these scenarios:

• Existing conditions
• 9 Erskine Lane Built Out (2023) post-development conditions
• Horizon Year (2033) post-development conditions

4.2 Corridor Growth Rate

Annual growth rates for traffic along the study area roads were determined by comparing historical traffic volumes along Watkiss Way and Helmcken Road. Based on CRD traffic count data, between 2008 and 2014 the average daily traffic along Watkiss Way grew less than 1% annually, while volumes on Helmcken Road grew 0.2% annually between 2014 and 2019.

There is limited opportunity for additional development on the Watkiss Way corridor, especially given that the lands in the District of Saanich along Watkiss Way are currently in the Agricultural Land Reserve and are unlikely to be developed. The Helmcken Road corridor is currently at or near capacity, with traffic often backed up to the Wilkinson / Interurban intersection; therefore, limited traffic growth (in a one-hour time period) is expected on Helmcken Road. Based on the above, a 0.5% growth rate was used for Helmcken Road, and a 1% growth rate was used on the remaining roads in the study area.

4.3 Concurrent Development Traffic Volumes

Allowances were made to account for new traffic generated by other development proposals in proximity to the proposed site that are either under construction, approved, being reviewed, or in which an application is expected to be submitted to the Town in the near future. There are three (3) residential background developments in the area that have been considered with a total of 221 residential units between them. The last concurrent development is the BC Transit HandyDart facility on the southeast corner of the Burnside Road / Watkiss Way intersection.

Trip generation and traffic assignments for the background developments are based on information contained in the traffic impact assessments for site prepared by WATT, while the HandyDart trip assignment is based on the WSP HandyDart Operations and Maintenance Facility Traffic Impact Study update memo (dated June 2, 2020).

A summary of the considered background developments is provided in Table 4. These volumes are added to the existing traffic in the preceding analysis scenarios.

Table 4 – Concurrent Developments

4.4 Existing Traffic - Intersection Analysis

Traffic data was taken from previously conducted TIA’s at 10 Erskine Lane, 9 Erskine Lane (previous TIA), and 7 Erskine Lane. The Helmcken Road, Burnside Road, and Hospital Access volumes were adjusted to 2023 using an annual growth rate of 0.5% on Helmcken Road and 1% on all other roads (see 4.2 Corridor Growth Rate). Base existing turning movement volumes were established for intersections within the study area for the weekday morning and afternoon peak periods. Traffic count information adopted as the basis for the traffic operations analysis is summarized in Table 5.

Table 5 – Existing Traffic Count Information

The existing area traffic volumes for the weekday morning and afternoon peak hours are illustrated in Figure 5 and Figure 6.

**Figure 5 - Existing Traffic Volumes - AM**

**Figure 6 - Existing Traffic Volumes - PM**

4.5 New Site Traffic Volumes

4.5.1 New Site Trip Generation

The proposed site includes 336 multi-family residential units. Vehicular trip generation rates for the proposed development are based on the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual (11th Edition). The trip generation forecast is summarized in Table 6.

Table 6 – Vehicle Trip Generation Rates

ITE Trip Generation Manual 11th Edition Rates

Vehicular Trip Generation

Notes: 1. Trip rates are per dwelling unit

The proposed development is forecast to generate 255 two-way trips in both the weekday morning and afternoon peak hours.

4.5.2 Trip Distribution and Assignment

As Erskine Lane dead ends south of the proposed site, all site traffic will use the intersection of Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane. The site trips were assigned based on the existing traffic distributions and consideration of nearby origin / destinations. The distribution of inbound and outbound traffic adopted for the proposed development is outlined in Table 7.

Table 7 – Site Traffic Distribution

The site traffic volumes assigned to the area road network are illustrated in Figure 7 and Figure 8.

**Figure 7 - AM Trip Assignment – 9 Erskine Lane**

**Figure 8 - PM Trip Assignment – 9 Erskine Lane**

4.6 2023 Post-Development Traffic Volumes

Post-development volumes include the existing 2023 traffic (including the concurrent developments and corridor growth), and the site trips for 9 Erskine Lane. The existing and 9 Erskine Lane traffic volumes are illustrated in Figure 9 and Figure 10.

**Figure 9 - Existing and 9 Erskine Lane Traffic Volumes – AM**

**Figure 10 - Existing and 9 Erskine Lane Traffic Volumes – PM**

4.7 Background Horizon Year 2033 Traffic Volumes

Background horizon year 2033 traffic volumes are the sum of the existing traffic volumes, concurrent developments, and corridor growth. Background horizon year 2033 traffic volumes are illustrated in Figure 11 and Figure 12.

**Figure 11 – Background 2033 Traffic Volumes – AM**

**Figure 12 – Background 2033 Traffic Volumes – PM**

4.8 Full Build Out Post-Development Horizon Year 2033 Traffic Volumes

In order to determine the long-term impact of the proposed development, the 10-year full build out conditions were analyzed. Horizon year 2033 traffic volumes are the sum of the existing traffic volumes, corridor growth, concurrent developments, and the new site traffic volumes. Horizon year 2033 traffic volumes are illustrated in Figure 13 and Figure 14.

**Figure 13 - Horizon Year 2033 Traffic Volumes - AM**

**Figure 14 - Horizon Year 2033 Traffic Volumes - PM**

5.0 TRANSPORTATION DEMAND MANAGEMENT

Transportation Demand Management (TDM) is the application of strategies and policies to influence the travel choice of an individual, most commonly to reduce single-occupant vehicle travel. TDM measures typically aim to encourage sustainable travel, enhance travel options, and decrease parking demand. The following outlines the TDM measures planned by the developer.

5.1 Electric Bicycles

Electric Bikes (E-bikes) are an emerging transportation phenomenon that are gaining popularity worldwide. With supportive cycling infrastructure in place, E-bikes have the potential to substitute or completely replace almost all trips taken by combustion engine vehicles which can help to address congestion issues and mitigate parking challenges in urban areas. Two barriers facing prospective E-bike users is the lack of secure parking which is critical for minimizing E-bike theft and cost.

The developer is providing two electrical bicycles to be shared by the complex. Access to electrical bicycles allows residents to experience an e-bicycle without having to outlay the costs which can help. E-bicycles also support longer commuter trips as well as increase the ability to carry heavier grocery items or other goods.

5.2 Secure Bicycle Parking

Research has reported that bicycle parking supply is a determinant of cycling for current and potential cyclists. A lack of bicycle parking and/or inadequate bicycle parking discourages cycling. Higher quality bicycle parking facilities are associated with more bicycle use. Further, more convenient bicycle parking is also associated with more cycling. Convenience includes easy access to bicycles (e.g., short distances between bicycle parking and actual trip origins or destinations).¹ Secure bicycle parking could especially benefit the residents of this development, with direct access to the Galloping Goose trail.

¹ Heinen, E & R. Buehler. (2019). Bicycle parking: a systematic review of scientific literature on parking behaviour, parking preferences, and their influence on cycling and travel behaviour, Transport Reviews, DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2019.1590477

5.3 Carpooling

An informal rideshare program could be implemented on site that will allow residents to identify if they require a ride or if they can provide a ride. This will be particularly useful for those residents who work in proximity to each other and have similar shifts. An informal program could be implemented internally, with a sign-up sheet in the lobby, or residents can be encouraged to sign up for carpool.ca.

5.4 Carshare

Carsharing is a form of car rental service for the sharing of vehicles for varying lengths of time. Carshares are usually co-operative and require users to register as a member to use vehicles and pay associated fees. An external carshare program could be considered for the site for those residents who may occasionally need access to a vehicle but may not be able to pay the costs associated with vehicle ownership. External carshare programs such as Modo, would not be reserved exclusively for residents at the site, but shared with other Modo members in the area. Although, Modo is not currently operating in View Royal, the developer could facilitate a conversation with Modo Carshare Corporation (the current managing corporation of the carshare program in Victoria) and the Town of View Royal to encourage the program to be expanded to the area. Given the significant population growth in the area (e.g., 5 Erskine Lane, 7 Erskine Lane, 10 Erskine), there may be a growing user base that would benefit from carsharing.

Research has shown that carsharing programs have a significant impact on reducing vehicle ownership, thereby reducing site trips, and lowering parking demand. Currently, there are no Modo vehicles near the site, but the developer is planning to provide two carshare vehicles. At this time, it has not been confirmed if these are going to be shared vehicles for the development or part of Modo.

5.5 TDM Impact on Traffic

This study is based on standard ITE Trip Generation rates and does not account for the potential reduction in vehicle trips due to the planned TDM. The planned TDM along with the proximity / easy access to the Galloping Goose, multiple transit routes heading in all directions, and the Eagle Creek commercial amenities is expected to reduce vehicle trips by at least 10% in the trips generated by this development. This equates to a reduction of 16 vehicles during the peak hours and 55 vehicles per day. Traffic volumes for the study were not adjusted to reflect this, therefore the results of the traffic analysis should be considered minorly conservative.

6.0 TRAFFIC OPERATIONS ANALYSIS

6.1 Methodology

Analysis of the traffic conditions at the intersections within the study area were undertaken using Synchro 11 software (for signalized and stop-controlled intersections).

The delays and type of traffic control are used to determine the LOS. The LOS is broken down into six letter grades with LOS A being excellent operations and LOS F being unstable / failure operations. LOS C is generally considered to be an acceptable LOS by most municipalities. LOS D is generally considered to be on the threshold between acceptable and unacceptable operations. A description of LOS and Synchro is provided in Appendix B. The Synchro reports are provided in Appendix C.

6.2 Input and Calibration Parameters

Heavy Vehicle Assumptions

Heavy and medium truck percentages incorporated into the analysis were based on intersection turning movement counts. Where not available, a default value of 2 percent heavy vehicles was assumed.

Peak Hour Factor

Peak hour factors for each intersection were calculated from the existing traffic count information. Where these values were unavailable, a default peak hour factor of 0.92 was adopted for all movements.

SimTraffic Used for Performance Delay/Vehicle

HCM 6th Edition does not support calculations for combined through/left turn movements, which includes two of the intersections in this study that have that laning. In order for all results to use a consistent methodology SimTraffic results were used to determine performance delay at the study intersections.

6.3 Existing Traffic Operations - 2023

Existing conditions were analyzed based on the collected volumes and existing roadway network. A summary of the traffic analysis results for the current condition of the intersections in the study area is provided in Table 8.

Table 8 – Existing Traffic Operations - 2023

Note: ## - Exceeds storage/acceptable limits

The intersections of Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive, Watkiss Way / Burnside Road W, and Watkiss Way / Hospital Access / Mall Access in both the AM and PM peak hour currently perform at an acceptable Level of Service (LOS), operating at LOS B or better with delays of 19 seconds or less. The 95th percentile queues are acceptable on all movements and the volume to capacity ratio (v/c) ratios for all approaches is 0.54 or less for all movements.

The intersection of Watkiss Way / Helmcken Road / Chancellor Avenue generally functions with an acceptable LOS, except for the northbound left movement in the AM peak hour which operates at a LOS F with a delay of 95 seconds, and the southbound left movement in the PM peak hour, which operates at a LOS E with a delay of 63 seconds. The northbound left movement is a minor movement for the intersection representing approximately 1% of the intersection’s total volume; high delay values on this one movement is not an indication of general poor intersection performance. The 95th percentile queues are acceptable on all movements and the v/c ratios for all approaches is 0.76 or less for all movements.

6.4 2023 Traffic Operations with 9 Erskine Lane Full Build Out

6.4.1 2023 Traffic Operations

A summary of the traffic analysis results for the intersections and site accesses in the study area after 9 Erskine Lane is fully built out are provided in Table 9 and Table 10.

Table 9 – 2023 Post Development Peak Hour Results

Note: ## - Exceeds storage/acceptable limits

Table 10 – 2023 Post Development Peak Hour Results – Site Accesses

The addition of site traffic post development has small impacts on the network in both the AM and PM peak hours. The intersections of Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive, sees almost no change with the addition of site traffic, remaining at LOS A for all movements.

Watkiss Way / Burnside Road W, and Watkiss Way / Hospital Access / Mall Access in both the AM and PM peak hour sees a maximum change in delay of 2 seconds or less and maintains LOS C or better on all movements.

The poorly performing movements at Watkiss Way / Helmcken Road / Chancellor Avenue continue to operate poorly in both the AM and PM peak hours. The northbound left movement drops form LOS D to LOS E in the PM peak hour with a delay of 58 seconds, and the southbound left movement drops from LOS D to LOS E in the AM peak with a delay of 69 seconds.

The 95th percentile queues remain acceptable on all approaches, The v/c ratios for all approaches are 0.77 or less for all movements.

All site accesses operate at LOS A with delays of 5 seconds or less and no queue issues. The v/c ratio for all movements is 0.05 or less. Figure 15 and Figure 16 show the traffic volumes for the AM and PM peak hours in 2023.

**Figure 15 – 2023 AM Site Accesses**

**Figure 16 – 2023 PM Site Accesses**

6.4.2 Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive Traffic Operations Change

Even though the Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive intersection operates at LOS A, WATT was asked to review performance implications for changes in traffic control. A summary of the traffic analysis results with traffic operation changes to either a roundabout or a traffic signal (assumes no dedicated turn lanes) is provided in Table 11.

Table 11 – Traffic Signal vs. Roundabout - 2023

Results show that the two devices perform with similar levels of LOS and delay, with the signal having a slightly higher delay value for the Watkiss Way movements. Queues remain comparable, with the signal having a slightly longer queues.

The intersection performs with little delay or queueing issue regardless of the control type as the results indicate, this is true of stop-controlled, signalized, or roundabout options.

6.5 Horizon Year Traffic Operations - 2033

6.5.1 Background Traffic Operations 2033

A summary of the background 2033 traffic analysis results for the intersections in the study area is provided in Table 12.

Table 12 – Background Traffic Operations - 2033

Note: ## - Exceeds storage/acceptable limits

The intersection of Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive operates at LOS A under stop-control with nod delay or queueing issues.

The Watkiss Way / Burnside Road W, and Watkiss Way / Hospital Access / Mall Access intersections in both the AM and PM peak hour area currently perform at an acceptable Level of Service (LOS), operating at LOS C or better with delays of 32 seconds or less. The 95th percentile queues are acceptable on all movements and the Volume to Capacity ratio (v/c) ratios for all approaches is 0.68 or less for all movements.

The intersection of Watkiss Way / Helmcken Road / Chancellor Avenue generally functions with an acceptable LOS, except for the northbound left movement, which operates at a LOS F with a delay of 158 seconds in the AM peak hour and at LOS F with a delay of 83 seconds in the PM peak hour, and the southbound left movement in the PM peak hour, which operates at a LOS F with a delay of 89 seconds. The 95th percentile queues are acceptable on all movements and the Volume to Capacity ratio (v/c) ratios for all approaches is 0.89 or less for all movements.

6.5.2 Full Build Out Traffic Operations 2033

A summary of the 2033 traffic analysis results for the intersections and site accesses in the study area after full build out, corridor growth, and site traffic is provided in Table 13 and Table 14.

Table 13 - 2033 Post Development Full Build Out

Note: ## - Exceeds storage/acceptable limits

Table 14 – Full Build Out 2033 Traffic Operations – Site Accesses

In the 2033 horizon year the impacts on the network in both the AM and PM peak hours are moderate. The intersections of Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive, Watkiss Way / Burnside Road W, and Watkiss Way / Hospital Access / Mall Access in both the AM and PM peak hour sees a maximum change in delay of 5 seconds or less and maintains LOS C or better on all movements. The 95th percentile queues change by 15 metres or less on all movements (i.e., approximately two car lengths) and remain acceptable.

The previously failed movements at Watkiss Way / Helmcken Road / Chancellor Avenue continue to fail in both the AM and PM peak hours with the northbound left movement experiencing an additional 10 seconds of delay in the AM peak hour and 83 seconds of additional delay in the PM peak hour, and the southbound left movement experiencing the same delay in the PM peak hour. The southbound left movement now also fails in the AM peak hour reaching LOS E with a delay of 66 seconds.

The 95th percentile queues remain acceptable on all approaches with an increase of 34 metres or less (i.e., five car lengths) from background conditions. The v/c ratios for all approaches are 0.89 or less for all movements.

All site accesses continue to operate well at LOS A with delays of 6 seconds or less, less than 1 second increase from 2023, and 95th percentile queues of 15 metres of less (i.e., approximately 2 car lengths), less than 1 metre increase from 2023. The v/c ratio for all movements is 0.07 or less. Figure 17 and Figure 18 show the traffic volumes for the site accesses in the AM and PM peak hours in 2033.

**Figure 17 – 2033 Site Accesses AM**

**Figure 18 – 2033 Site Access PM**

6.5.3 Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive Traffic Operations Change

Traffic control changes for the future scenario were modeled as they were in the 2023 scenario. A summary of the traffic analysis results in 2033 for the Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive intersection with traffic operation changes to either a roundabout or a traffic signal (assumes no dedicated turn lanes) is provided in Table 15.

Table 15 – Traffic Signal vs. Roundabout - 2033

Note: ## - Exceeds storage/acceptable limits

Comparing a change in traffic operation for the intersection of Watkiss Way / Erskine Lane / Stoneridge Drive in 2033 shows that both a traffic signal and a roundabout continue to work as a solution to improve traffic operations. A traffic signal still operates at LOS B or better with a delay of 19 seconds or less, and a roundabout continues to operate at LOS A with a delay of 4 seconds or less.

A traffic signal has a larger delay of 15 seconds or less over a roundabout in the AM and PM peak hours in 2033. The 95th percentile queues increase by 36 metres or less (i.e., approximately 5 car lengths) and the v/c ratio increases by 0.41 or less on any movement. These results demonstrate that either option will serve traffic acceptably, and the inclusion of left turn lanes on Watkiss Way would improve the signal performance results.

As with the 2023 results the intersection performs well under all traffic control types, including under stop-control.

7.0 LEFT TURN LANES

A left-turn lane warrant analysis was conducted at Watkiss Way/Erskine Lane using the MoTI tables for unsignalized intersections. Results can be seen in Table 16.

The results show that no left turn lane is warranted in either 2023 or 2033. The “Yes” results in the 2033 Westbound – PM is very marginal, barely meeting the requirements.

Despite these results WATT recommends that the turn lanes be installed on Watkiss Way; they provide improved safety as it separates left turn and through traffic and provides the opportunity for dedicated left turn phasing in a signalized future (if warranted).

Table 16 – MOTI Left Turn Warrant Analysis for Unsignalized Intersections

8.0 CONCLUSIONS

The development will not significantly impact the traffic operations at the three Town intersections. All movements will operate at LOS C or better in the long-term in both the background and post development conditions.

At the Watkiss Way / Helmcken Road intersection, the addition of the development does impact the levels of service; however, the effect is minimal as most of the failing movements were failing in background. The biggest effect in both the 2023 and 2033 analysis is to the northbound left movement (least critical movement) in the PM peak hour and the southbound left movement in the AM peak hour. MOTI and the Town of View Royal should look at improving traffic signal timing to mitigate this issue.

The proposed TDM program (two car share vehicles, two shared e-bikes, and secure bicycle parking) along with the proximity to the Galloping Goose, transit, and amenities at Eagle Creek Village will help encourage residents to shift their trips to other modes of transportation and reduce vehicular traffic.

The proposed site access meet TAC guidelines for corner clearance and sightlines.

A sidewalk should be provided along the Erskine Lane development frontage to provide a better connection to the Hospital trail, and Galloping Goose Trail. Additional bicycle improvements are under negotiation with the Town at this time, however a high-quality AAA connection to the Galloping Goose Trail (i.e. a multi-use path or equivalent) should be strongly considered.

Traffic calming is not required on Erskine Lane due to the short length of the street and the lack of connectivity to other streets. Traffic calming on Erskine Lane would not reduce traffic (as all traffic would be due to land uses on the street) and there is limited ability to speed due to the length.

9.0 RECOMMENDATIONS

Watt makes the following recommendations to the developer of this site:

1. The developer will provide a sidewalk along the Erskine Lane and Watkiss Way development frontages.
2. The developer provides a high-standard cycling connection to the Galloping Goose Trail along the Erskine Lane frontage.
3. The developer to explore implementation of TDM strategies [car share vehicles (2) and electric bicycle share (2)] to reduce vehicle traffic and encourage active modes.
4. The developer to contribute towards the traffic control scheme of the Erskine Lane / Watkiss Way intersection. Including left turn lanes.