Andrew Gage - Resources on costs of climate change

Andrew Gage - Resources on costs of climate change

Understanding the costs that climate change poses to our communities – both current and future – is essential to keeping us safe and forces us to confront the reality that climate change will be extraordinarily expensive. The Sue Big Oil campaign argues that at least some of these costs should be shared by global fossil fuel companies, but even those who do not agree with that solution should recognize that a conversation about what these costs are and how we should pay for them is essential.

Unfortunately, few local governments have a detailed understanding of how climate change will cost them, or how much they should be spending to reduce the risks of catastrophic climate events. Indeed, even those costs which have already materialised, such as increased costs from coastal erosion, stormwater management, road maintenance, water systems, etc. are usually not attributed to climate change in local government books, but just appear as ordinary maintenance, operating or construction costs.

This resource identifies a number of possible sources of information for local government elected officials and Sue Big Oil campaigners to get a sense of what some of the climate costs may be.

In some cases local governments do have a sense of climate costs and a review of key documents, or asking local government officials, can result in tangible examples of climate costs and/or specific dollar values. (See Information from Local Governments, below).

Where there is a lack of information about costs available at a local government level, there are a number of useful papers and studies that can provide figures at a national, provincial or regional level, in relation to costs:

• from particular past climate events (Past costs from climate change),
• costs of preparing for climate change (Adaptation costs); or
• future climate costs (Estimated future costs).

Information from local governments

The first stop in gathering information about the costs of climate change should be your local government. Every level of government should understand its expenses and expected future expenses, what is causing them and how they can be managed. Start with what is in local government reports and plans (on the website) and then ask questions. Here’s some possible questions that elected officials can ask, or that concerned citizens can ask their elected officials and city staff.

Plans and reports to look for include (but may not be limited to):

• Climate vulnerability assessments – Climate vulnerability assessments are technical reports that identify the ways in which a changing climate is expected to affect a region or community. They are often the first step in developing climate adaptation plans. They may attempt to quantify actual costs associated with climate change, although many give a qualitative discussion of the impacts.
• Climate adaptation plans – Climate adaptation plans identify specific measures that a government is planning to carry out to reduce the risks of future climate impacts. They may be stand-alone plans or may be part of a more general climate plan that also deals with reducing emissions. Climate adaptation plans can be an important source of information about expected local government costs because they identify specific future projects, and therefore expenses required (if not necessarily committed), required as a direct result of climate change risks and projections. That being said, an amazing number of local government climate adaptation plans do not contain estimates of the financial, human resources or other costs associated with the measures.
• Asset management plans – A number of local governments in BC have developed Asset Management Plans – plans which in the words of Asset Management BC adopt a “systematic approach for evaluating trade-offs between service, cost, and risk for built and natural assets.” in managing local government assets to provide services. The connection between climate change and the management of municipal assets is clear and Asset Management BC has provided guidance on how climate change can be addressed in asset management plans. Asset Management BC recommends that asset management plans include a long-term financial plan related to local government assets and that this be updated to “recognize where climatic changes may impact costs of service delivery and the approaches to funding those costs.”
• Local government budgets – One local government document that we know with certainty will have hard numbers in it is the budget, and it can provide some insights into local government climate costs, particularly when tied to the development or implementation of the above plans. Many items which show up in budgets are likely made more expensive by climate change – road maintenance, sewer and water systems, urban forests, etc. - although it can be tricky to know whether changes in these budget line items year over year are due to political priorities, inflation, aging infrastructure, climate change or some other factor.

If one municipality does not have figures, it may be worth seeing whether similarly situated local governments in the same region does.

If clear financial figures for climate costs are not available from publicly available reports, Questions to ask government officials include:

• Are there measures, risks or costs identified in the plan that can be tied to climate change or which will become worse as climate change gets worse? Are these measures, risks or costs that would not occur, or would be less severe, were it not for climate change?
• Have the costs of specific measures to adapt to climate change or to respond to recent or future climate impacts been quantified? For example, the City of Merrit has identified both that it has spent $149 million in response and rebuilding after the 2021 floods, but also that it will need to spend $165 million to prevent future flooding?
• What did it cost to develop reports or plans intended to understand and address the risks of climate change? These reports, while essential to understanding and preparing for future risks, may themselves be costly to prepare.
• Are there municipal buildings or other infrastructure in areas likely to be affected by flood, rising sea levels or wildfire? (Tools such as Plan2Adapt or the Climate Atlas of Canada can help identify these areas and impacts).
• Where climate change is likely increasing costs, but other factors are likely in play, what is an official’s best sense of how current and future climate change is changing those costs? What portion might be attributable to climate change?

National, provincial and regional resources

In addition to looking for local information, national, provincial and regional information on climate costs can help tell a story about why a local government likely also faces significant climate costs. Here are some of the resources that we’re aware of. If we’re missing anything, please let us know.

Past costs from climate change