Council Report: Regional Growth Strategy Population Projections Amendment

Regional Growth Strategy Population Projections Amendment

RECOMMENDATION:

THAT Council accept the new population projections from the Capital Regional District which will amend the 2018 Regional Growth strategy by replacing Table 1: Population, Dwelling Unit and Employment Projections.

CHIEF ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICER’S COMMENTS:

I concur with the recommendation.

PURPOSE OF REPORT:

To introduce new population projections for inclusion in the Regional Growth Strategy (RGS). The new table moves away from providing projections at the local level and indtead, provides a projection at the sub-regional level.

BACKGROUND DISCUSSION:

The 2018 RGS contains population, dwelling unit and employment numbers for all municipalities and the Juan de Fuca Electoral Area. The numbers are based on the 2011 census because at the time the RGS was finalized, sufficient information had not yet been released from the 2016 census to allow for more current numbers.

On March 14, 2018, the CRD Board adopted Bylaw No. 4017, “Capital Regional District Regional Growth Strategy Bylaw No. 1, 2016”. Adoption followed a non-binding dispute resolution process through which participants agreed to “update the projections with most recent census numbers as soon as practicable.”

The data necessary to update projections became available early in 2019. CRD staff then engaged the services of BC Statistics to prepare detailed projections. Projections were prepared at sub-regional (Appendix A) levels and are available at the municipal level.

Per the BC Statistics’ projection, the region’s population is expected to increase from 392,100 in 2018 to 478,500 in 2038. This equates to a 1.0% average annual growth rate. Dwelling unit growth is expected to be slightly more rapid (1.4% average annual growth rate) in response to diminishing household sizes resulting from smaller family units and more individuals living alone. Employment numbers are expected to increase by 23.7% over the 2018-2038 period.

The projections provided in Appendix A provide one possible interpretation on how future growth may end up being distributed across the region. The projections have been prepared using a demographic approach based on BC Statistics’ PEOPLE (Population Extrapolation for Organizational Planning with Less Error) methodology. This method projects population forward using a Component/Cohort-Survival model. It uses fertility, mortality and migration assumptions, and applies them to a base year age specific population. Over time, cohorts are ‘aged’, while also considering the effects of net migration, deaths and births. This approach contrasts with a land-use analysis approach which would require extensive/detailed assessment of developable land in each municipality. Previous attempts to prepare land-use based population projections have proven unsuccessful given the uneven availability of necessary municipal land use information.

Both Alternatives 1 and 2 would update population, dwelling unit and employment projections and fulfill dispute resolution commitments. The difference between the Alternatives is that one would provide projections only at a sub-regional level (Alternative 1), whereas the other would provide projections at a municipal level (Alternative 2). Municipal planning directors have indicated a preference for sub-regional projections given that accuracy is likely to be greater at that scale.

Although municipal level projections are not mandated for the RGS, such projections may be useful for various planning purposes. For example, new provincial requirements took effect on April 16, 2019 which require local governments to project population in the context of Housing Needs reports. Regardless of whether municipal projections are used in the RGS, municipalities may find it helpful to have the option of using municipal projections for their Housing Needs reports or other planning purposes. The CRD can make the municipal-specific projections available whether or not they are included in the RGS.

Sections 432 to 434 and 450 of the Local Government Act set out requirements for processing the regional growth strategy amendments needed to incorporate updated projections.

CRD Staff identified two options for the Board to consider and the recommended option was Alternative 1:

Alternative 1

That the Planning and Protective Services Committee recommends to the Capital Regional District Board:

a) That an amendment to Bylaw No. 4017 “Capital Regional District Regional Growth Strategy Bylaw No. 1, 2016” Table 1 be initiated to show sub-regional population, dwelling unit and employment projections, as shown in Appendix A; b) That the consultation plan (Appendix D) for the amendment of the 2018 RGS be approved, including the waiving of a public hearing; and c) That the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, municipal councils and the Juan de Fuca Land Use Committee be notified that an amendment to the RGS has been initiated.

Alternative 2

That the Planning and Protective Services Committee recommends to the Capital Regional District Board:

a) That an amendment to Bylaw No. 4017 “Capital Regional District Regional Growth Strategy Bylaw No. 1, 2016” Table 1 be initiated to show municipal population, dwelling unit and employment projections, as shown in Appendix B; b) That the consultation plan (Appendix D) for the amendment of the 2018 RGS be approved, including the waiving of a public hearing; and c) That the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, municipal councils and the Juan de Fuca Land Use Committee be notified that an amendment to the RGS has been initiated.

Town staff recognize that providing forecasts at a municipal level is problematic and that amending the table to only show projections at a sub-regional level is a reasonable approach. This amendment does not impact the Town’s preparation of a new Regional Context Statement.